سوق المطاط الأسبوعي-20260108

1. Rubber Spot Market Analysis

This week, rubber spot prices saw a slight upward trend. Domestic production areas have largely entered the off-season for tapping. Currently, there is restocking activity in the international market, and Thai raw material prices continue to rise, strengthening cost support for rubber. Downstream demand for high-priced rubber is weak, which to some extent limits the upward movement of rubber prices, resulting in a short-term upward-trending but volatile price trend.

This week, spot prices for natural latex continued to rise. Traders were relatively active in offering prices. Futures prices fluctuated at high levels. Prices for USD-denominated shipments from Southeast Asian processing plants continued to rise, leading to a profit margin for traders restocking at a loss. Meanwhile, spot pressure in sales areas was not significant, supporting further increases in spot prices. Downstream product manufacturers were only inquiring about immediate needs, and were cautious about restocking high-priced raw materials. Transaction volume needs further monitoring.

Market Forecast:
1. Rainy weather will continue to have a disruptive impact, with raw material releases gradually.
2. The operating rate of sample tire manufacturers is expected to decline next cycle.
3. Inventory levels in Qingdao, China, continue to accumulate.
4. Exchange rates and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, etc.

2. Natural Rubber Supply Analysis

2.1 Thailand Production Area

International dry rubber demand improved, cup lump rubber purchase prices rose, and factories continued to pay premiums, leading to a diversion of latex production and a subsequent increase in latex prices. Thai factories maintained raw material inventories of approximately 1-2 months, with some reaching around 3 months, lower than the same period last year. Restocking in Europe and India provided support, and factories maintained a positive sales sentiment, with shipments scheduled for March-August.

2.2 Vietnam Production Area

This week, temperatures in Vietnam decreased, leading to a decline in dry rubber content and signs of seasonal production reduction. Although latex orders were slightly weaker, a recovery in orders for 3L and TSR10 rubber provided support, maintaining factory purchasing activity and driving up raw material prices.

2.3 Yunnan Production Area

This week, raw material prices in Yunnan remained stable as the region entered its off-season.

2.4 Hainan Production Area

This week, as temperatures gradually dropped in Hainan, the area where rubber tapping ceased further expanded. Only a few scattered rubber plantations on the western route and a few areas in the south remained under tapping. The total amount of rubber available for harvesting across the island was relatively scarce, and raw material purchase prices fluctuated only slightly. This marks the end of the Hainan natural rubber tapping season. Local processing plants have gradually shut down, and winter storage reserves are at a lower level than in previous years, leading to a relatively cautious willingness to ship.

3. Analysis of Natural Rubber Cost and Profit Situation

3.1 Overseas Production Area: Thailand

The theoretical production profit of STR20 in Thailand improved compared to the previous week. This week, cup lump prices rose, coupled with the appreciation of the Thai baht, increasing cost pressure on factories. However, strong futures prices boosted factory offers, domestic arbitrageurs increased their positions, and international restocking sentiment improved, resulting in many factories selling at higher prices. The price increase of finished products exceeded that of raw materials, leading to an improvement in the theoretical production profit of STR20 compared to the previous week.

3.2 Domestic Production Area: Hainan

The Hainan natural rubber tapping season is coming to an end; local processing plants are gradually shutting down.

4. Analysis of Natural Rubber Demand

4.1. Dry Rubber Downstream

The operating rate of semi-steel tires in China is 64%. The operating rate of all-steel tires in China is 56%.

During the week, some enterprises were still shut down for maintenance during the New Year's Day holiday, gradually resuming work around the 4th. Production schedules were not operating normally for most of the week, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. Shipments were slow during the cycle, and inventory reduction was slower than expected.

4.2. Concentrated Latex Downstream

It is understood that foam factories in Wenzhou are operating at approximately 50% capacity, with some differences between large and small factories. Although sales of finished products have shown some signs of recovery due to the boost from e-commerce promotions such as "Double Eleven" and "Double Twelve," overall, actual shipments have not improved significantly and are lower than the same period last year. Processing plants are facing inventory accumulation pressure, and increasing operating rates still faces significant obstacles. In terms of raw material inventory, large factories currently have about one month's worth of inventory, while small and medium-sized enterprises are mainly replenishing their stocks, with an overall wait-and-see attitude prevailing. Attention should be paid to changes in demand.

It is understood that glove factories in North China are operating at an average capacity of around 60%. The glove industry is gradually entering its seasonal off-season, with domestic sales orders for finished products being generally weak and the impact of substitutes leading to cautious restocking intentions among factories. Currently, the inventory levels of raw materials and finished products at processing plants are generally low. As the year-end approaches, some companies are showing signs of temporary stockpiling, but the actual sentiment remains cautious and wait-and-see. Continued monitoring of demand is necessary.

5. Natural Rubber Price Spread Chart

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